Identifying Future Disease Hot Spots: Infectious Disease Vulnerability Index.

Area of Science:

• Global Health Security
• Epidemiology
• Public Health Policy

Background:

• Transnational infectious disease outbreaks (e.g., Ebola, Zika) highlight global health vulnerabilities.
• Identifying at-risk nations is crucial for targeted international support and intervention.
• Existing economic indicators alone do not fully capture a country's susceptibility to outbreaks.

Purpose of the Study:

• To create a comprehensive Infectious Disease Vulnerability Index (IDVI).
• To identify and rank countries most vulnerable to infectious disease outbreaks.
• To inform U.S. government and international agencies for preemptive programming.

Main Methods:

• Conducted a systematic literature review to identify key factors influencing disease vulnerability.
• Utilized widely available data to construct the IDVI.
• Ranked countries based on their overall vulnerability scores.

Main Results:

• Identified specific countries with high infectious disease vulnerability scores.
• Highlighted a potential "disease belt" in the Sahel region of Africa.
• Observed that some low-income countries demonstrated resilience exceeding economic predictions.

Conclusions:

• The IDVI provides a data-driven tool for prioritizing global health security investments.
• Focusing on the 25 most vulnerable countries, particularly in the Sahel, is recommended.
• Resilience to public health challenges can be built independently of economic status.