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Throughout its ~4.5 billion year history, the Earth has experienced periods of warming and cooling. However, the current drastic increase in global temperatures is well outside of the Earth’s cyclic norms, and evidence for human-caused global climate change is compelling. Paleoclimatology, the study of ancient climate conditions, provides ample evidence for human-caused global climate change by comparing recent conditions with those in the past.
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Using Generative Art to Convey Past and Future Climate Transitions
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Nonlinear climate sensitivity and its implications for future greenhouse warming.

Tobias Friedrich1, Axel Timmermann1, Michelle Tigchelaar2

  • 1International Pacific Research Center, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI 96822, USA.

Science Advances
|September 2, 2017
PubMed
Summary

Earth's climate sensitivity to greenhouse gases is higher during warm periods. Future warming may exceed the last 784,000 years, validating current climate model projections.

Keywords:
Climate changeIPCCcarbon dioxideclimate sensitivityglacial cyclesglobal warminggreenhouse effectice agemodelingpaleo, CMIP5

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Area of Science:

  • Paleoclimatology
  • Climate modeling
  • Earth system science

Background:

  • Global mean surface temperatures are rising due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions.
  • Specific equilibrium climate sensitivity (S), the magnitude of warming at equilibrium for a given radiative forcing, remains uncertain.
  • Understanding past climate variability is crucial for validating future climate projections.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To estimate global mean temperature variations and specific equilibrium climate sensitivity (S) over the last 784,000 years.
  • To assess the dependence of S on the climate background state.
  • To compare paleo-based warming estimates with current climate model simulations.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized a 784,000-year-long sea surface temperature reconstruction.
  • Employed a transient paleoclimate model simulation.
  • Analyzed temperature data from eight glacial cycles.

Main Results:

  • Specific equilibrium climate sensitivity (S) is significantly larger during warm climate phases.
  • Paleo-based estimates of Earth's future warming by 2100 CE (using Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) overlap with the upper range of CMIP5 simulations.
  • Global mean temperatures in the 21st century are very likely to exceed maximum levels of the past 784,000 years.

Conclusions:

  • Paleoclimate data provide an independent validation for the magnitude of current CMIP5 warming projections.
  • Future warming under high-emission scenarios may reach unprecedented levels not seen in nearly a million years.
  • Climate sensitivity is not constant and varies with the background climate state.