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Behavioral Modeling of Adversaries with Multiple Objectives in Counterterrorism.

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This study enhances attacker-defender models by incorporating terrorists' multiple objectives and irrational decision-making using multiattribute prospect theory. This approach better represents terrorist behavior for optimizing defensive strategies against attacks, such as smuggling radioactive materials.

Keywords:
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Area of Science:

  • Security studies
  • Behavioral economics
  • Game theory

Background:

  • Traditional attacker-defender models assume rational actors optimizing individual costs.
  • Recent research explores multi-objective attackers and deviations from rational behavior.
  • Existing models lack integration of attacker's multiple objectives with adaptive responses to defender actions.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To extend attacker-defender models by incorporating multiple terrorist objectives and adaptive behaviors.
  • To account for deviations from rational decision-making in terrorist attack planning.
  • To develop a more realistic model of terrorist behavior for defense strategy optimization.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized multiattribute prospect theory to model attacker behavior.
  • Incorporated multiple objectives and adaptive responses to defender actions.
  • Evaluated the model with a scenario of radioactive material smuggling into the U.S.

Main Results:

  • Multiattribute prospect theory effectively models terrorists with multiple objectives and non-rational decision-making.
  • The model captures the adaptive tradeoffs terrorists consider in response to defender actions.
  • Demonstrated the application in a radioactive material smuggling scenario.

Conclusions:

  • Integrating multiple objectives and bounded rationality provides a more accurate representation of terrorist behavior.
  • Continued research is crucial for developing effective defensive strategies against evolving terrorist threats.
  • The proposed modeling approach offers a pathway to avoid misrepresenting terrorist decision-making in security contexts.