Speaking the truth in maritime risk assessment

Area of Science:

• Maritime Safety
• Risk Assessment
• Transportation Engineering

Background:

• Major risk studies in maritime transportation have impacted industry management.
• Previous risk assessments, like the Prince William Sound study, were limited by unassessed uncertainty.
• Modeling risk in dynamic, data-scarce maritime environments requires specialized techniques.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop and apply a comprehensive methodology for assessing risk and uncertainty in maritime transportation.
• To address the limitations of previous risk studies by incorporating uncertainty assessment.
• To evaluate the effectiveness of the new methodology through real-world case studies.

Main Methods:

• Developed a Bayesian simulation for modeling accident-potential situations.
• Developed a Bayesian multivariate regression analysis for risk factor-expert judgment relationships.
• Combined these methods for a full-scale risk and uncertainty assessment.

Main Results:

• Successfully applied the combined methodology to two distinct case studies.
• Provided a quantitative assessment of risk and associated uncertainties for ferry operations.
• Demonstrated the feasibility of assessing uncertainty in maritime risk.

Conclusions:

• The developed methodology provides a robust framework for maritime risk and uncertainty assessment.
• This approach can significantly improve safety management in the maritime industry.
• The case studies highlight the practical applicability and benefits of the new methods.