[Combined forecasting system of peritonitis outcome].

Area of Science:

• Surgical Medicine
• Critical Care Medicine
• Medical Informatics

Background:

• Peritonitis poses a significant threat to patient survival.
• Existing severity assessment systems for peritonitis have limitations in accuracy and accessibility.
• A need exists for a reliable and easily applicable system for peritonitis severity assessment and outcome prediction.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop and validate a novel, reliable system for assessing peritonitis severity.
• To predict patient outcomes in cases of peritonitis.
• To create a system utilizing easily accessible clinical and laboratory parameters.

Main Methods:

• Critical analysis of existing peritonitis severity assessment systems.
• Inclusion of data from 347 patients treated for peritonitis between 2015-2016.
• Development of a combined forecasting system incorporating clinical, laboratory, systemic inflammatory response (SIRS), and sequential organ failure assessment (qSOFA) scores.

Main Results:

• A combined forecasting system for peritonitis severity was successfully created.
• The system integrates clinical, laboratory, SIRS, and qSOFA data.
• The system achieved high performance metrics: 93.3% sensitivity, 99.7% specificity, and 98.9% accuracy, surpassing existing methods like MPI and APACHE II.
• A threshold score of 8 indicates a >50% probability of a lethal outcome.

Conclusions:

• The developed forecasting system provides a reliable method for assessing peritonitis severity.
• The system's reliance on easily identifiable parameters makes it suitable for widespread use in surgical settings.
• This tool offers improved accuracy in predicting peritonitis outcomes compared to established scoring systems.