Freshwater vulnerability under high end climate change. A pan-European assessment

Area of Science:

• Environmental Science
• Climate Science
• Hydrology

Background:

• Freshwater availability is critical for sustainable, low-carbon futures, linking water management and climate policies.
• Assessing future water security under climate change is complex, influenced by warming, hydrological impacts, water demand, and adaptation strategies.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop a simple, transparent framework for assessing European vulnerability to freshwater stress.
• To compare current vulnerability with future projections under different global warming levels (1.5°C, 2°C, 4°C) and socioeconomic pathways.
• To create a spatially detailed map of pan-European vulnerability to freshwater shortage.

Main Methods:

• Developed a conceptual framework to assess freshwater stress vulnerability.
• Utilized projections for different global warming scenarios (1.5°C, 2°C, 4°C) under the RCP8.5 scenario.
• Incorporated various socioeconomic development pathways and climate adaptation levels.
• Generated a localized administrative-level map of pan-European freshwater shortage vulnerability.

Main Results:

• A spatially detailed map of European vulnerability to freshwater shortage was created.
• The framework allows for comparison of current hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions with future projections.
• Vulnerability assessments consider different global warming levels and adaptation strategies.

Conclusions:

• The developed framework provides a useful tool for regional policymaking and strategic planning against future freshwater stress.
• Understanding and mapping freshwater vulnerability is essential for effective climate change adaptation and water resource management.
• The study highlights the need for integrated water management and climate policies to ensure future water security.