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Migration Flow and Its Impact on Tuberculosis Notification in Portugal
Ana Dias1, Rita Gaio2, Pedro Sousa3
1Centro Hospitalar Lisboa Norte EPE, Departamento do Tórax, Lisboa, Portugal.
Archivos De Bronconeumologia
|September 21, 2017
Summary
Tuberculosis notification in Portugal has declined, but migration changes had minimal impact on this trend. Our analysis suggests focusing on other tuberculosis risk factors for effective public health strategies.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Public Health
- Demography
Background:
- Tuberculosis notification rates in Portugal have declined in recent years.
- Economic factors led to increased emigration and decreased immigration.
- Immigrants and young adults (20-44 years) are identified risk groups for tuberculosis.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze the demographic impact of migration on tuberculosis notification trends in Portugal.
- To quantify the influence of immigration and emigration on tuberculosis rates.
Main Methods:
- Mathematical modeling was used to assess migration's effect on tuberculosis notification from 2008 to 2014.
- Tuberculosis notification was estimated by isolating the impact of immigration and emigration rates, holding 2008 values constant.
Main Results:
- The study found minimal differences (≤0.5 cases/100,000 inhabitants) between observed and estimated tuberculosis notification numbers.
- The model indicated that neither immigration nor emigration individually or combined significantly impacted tuberculosis notification rates.
Conclusions:
- Migration movements do not appear to be a significant factor in the observed decrease in tuberculosis notification in Portugal, according to the model.
- Future tuberculosis control efforts should investigate and address other contributing risk factors beyond migration.
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