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An evolutionary tipping point in a changing environment.

Matthew M Osmond1, Christopher A Klausmeier2

  • 1Biodiversity Research Centre and Department of Zoology, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada.

Evolution; International Journal of Organic Evolution
|October 8, 2017
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Populations can adapt to changing environments through evolution. New research reveals that specific fitness functions can create evolutionary tipping points, leading to extinction without clear warning signs.

Keywords:
Evolutionary rescueextinctionfitness functionhysteresismathematical modelquantitative genetics

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Area of Science:

  • Evolutionary biology
  • Quantitative genetics
  • Ecology

Background:

  • Populations adapt to environmental change via evolution.
  • Quantitative genetic theory predicts extinction thresholds based on environmental change rates.
  • Current models assume a uniform fitness function, limiting evolutionary rate predictions.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate how alternative fitness functions impact extinction thresholds.
  • To explore the concept of evolutionary tipping points.
  • To assess the predictability of extinction events.

Main Methods:

  • Theoretical modeling of population dynamics under directional environmental change.
  • Analysis of fitness functions and their effect on selection strength.
  • Examination of early-warning signals for tipping points.

Main Results:

  • A modified fitness function with inflection points can create evolutionary tipping points.
  • These tipping points can cause rapid population decline without crossing zero growth.
  • Standard early-warning signals for tipping points are unreliable for predicting extinction.
  • Evolutionary hysteresis and extinction debts are consequences of these tipping points.

Conclusions:

  • The assumed fitness function in evolutionary models is critical for predicting extinction.
  • Evolutionary tipping points offer a new framework for understanding population persistence.
  • Predicting extinction in rapidly changing environments remains challenging.