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Outbreak Column 16: Cognitive errors in outbreak decision making.

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During outbreaks, infection prevention and control teams (IPCTs) use mental shortcuts called heuristics. These can lead to cognitive errors and biases, impacting decision-making during public health emergencies.

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Area of Science:

  • Decision Science
  • Cognitive Psychology
  • Public Health

Background:

  • Outbreaks necessitate rapid decision-making under conditions of incomplete information.
  • Infection prevention and control teams (IPCTs) rely on heuristics, or mental shortcuts, to navigate uncertainty.
  • While heuristics aid quick decisions, they are susceptible to cognitive biases and errors.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To explore the role of heuristics and cognitive biases in outbreak decision-making.
  • To relate recognized biases to the processes of outbreak prevention, preparedness, and management.
  • To offer strategies for identifying and mitigating these biases.

Main Methods:

  • Literature review and synthesis of cognitive biases relevant to decision-making.
  • Application of decision-making science principles to outbreak scenarios.
  • Discussion of heuristic biases within the context of infection prevention and control.

Main Results:

  • Over 100 cognitive biases have been identified in decision-making science.
  • Heuristics, while efficient, can introduce systematic errors and biases.
  • Understanding these biases is crucial for optimizing IPCT performance during outbreaks.

Conclusions:

  • Cognitive biases stemming from heuristic use can impact outbreak response effectiveness.
  • Awareness and mitigation strategies are essential for improving decision-making by IPCTs.
  • Further research into bias recognition and avoidance in public health is warranted.