Cardiovascular risk assessment in elderly adults using SCORE OP model in a Latin American population: The experience...

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality is predicted to increase in Latin America countries due to their rapidly aging population. However, there is very little information about CVD risk assessment as a primary preventive measure in this high-risk population.

We predicted the national risk of developing CVD in Ecuadorian elderly population using the Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation in Older Persons (SCORE OP) High and Low models by risk categories/CVD risk region in 2009. Data on national cardiovascular risk factors were obtained from the Encuesta sobre Salud, Bienestar y Envejecimiento. We computed the predicted 5-year risk of CVD risk and compared the extent of agreement and reclassification in stratifying high-risk individuals between SCORE OP High and Low models. Analyses were done by risk categories, CVD risk region, and sex.

In 2009, based on SCORE OP Low model almost 42% of elderly adults living in Ecuador were at high risk of suffering CVD over a 5-year period. The extent of agreement between SCORE OP High and Low risk prediction models was moderate (Cohen's kappa test of 0.5), 34% of individuals approximately were reclassified into different risk categories and a third of the population would benefit from a pharmacologic intervention to reduce the CVD risk.

Forty-two percent of elderly Ecuadorians were at high risk of suffering CVD over a 5-year period, indicating an urgent need to tailor primary preventive measures for this vulnerable and high-risk population.