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Hospital Surge Capacity: A Web-Based Simulation Tool for Emergency Planners
Matthew F Toerper1, Gabor D Kelen1, Lauren M Sauer1
1Johns Hopkins Department of Emergency Medicine,Baltimore,Maryland.
Disaster Medicine and Public Health Preparedness
|October 19, 2017
Summary
The Surge simulation tool estimates hospital bed capacity during disasters. Combining strategies like opening beds and canceling admissions can increase capacity by 30-40%, aiding disaster preparedness.
Area of Science:
- Disaster Medicine
- Public Health Preparedness
- Health Systems Research
Background:
- Hospitals require robust surge capacity planning for mass casualty events.
- Existing tools for estimating hospital surge capacity are limited.
- The National Center for the Study of Preparedness and Catastrophic Event Response (PACER) developed the Surge tool.
Purpose of the Study:
- To evaluate the publicly available Surge simulation tool for estimating hospital bed capacity.
- To assess the impact of various capacity-expanding strategies on disaster patient accommodation.
- To analyze hospital surge capacity in different healthcare settings.
Main Methods:
- Utilized a Monte Carlo simulation algorithm to forecast bed capacity over 7 days.
- Simulated acute mass casualty events for user-defined hospitals.
- Interactively evaluated strategies: opening unlicensed beds, canceling elective admissions, and reverse triage.
Main Results:
- Baseline surge capacity ranged from 7% (large urban) to 22% (small rural) of staffed beds.
- Combined response strategies increased simulated surge capacity to 30%-40% of staffed beds.
- Strategies were most effective in large urban hospitals due to higher occupancy and elective admissions.
Conclusions:
- The Surge tool enables proactive assessment of hospital surge capacity.
- Simulation findings support improved decision-making for disaster response planning.
- Publicly available tools are crucial for enhancing healthcare system resilience during emergencies.
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