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RADON CONCENTRATION TIME SERIES MODELING AND APPLICATION DISCUSSION.
1Czech Technical University in Prague, Faculty of Nuclear Sciences and Physical Engineering, Brehová 7, Praha 11 519, Czech Republic.
Radiation Protection Dosimetry
|October 19, 2017
Summary
Radon concentrations in Mladeč Caves were modeled using SARIMAX to analyze potential earthquake precursors. This study explored if continuous radon monitoring could serve as an early warning system for seismic events.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Geophysics
- Atmospheric Physics
Background:
- Continuous radon monitoring was initiated in Mladeč Caves in 2010.
- Radon concentrations (RCs) exhibit complex time-series behavior influenced by various factors.
Purpose of the Study:
- To model radon time series data from 2010-2015 using advanced statistical methods.
- To investigate the potential of continuous radon measurements as an earthquake precursor.
Main Methods:
- Applied the Box-Jenkins Methodology, specifically a seasonal integrated, autoregressive moving averages model with exogenous variables (SARIMAX).
- Developed a regARIMA(5,1,3) model incorporating seasonality, historical RCs, and delayed atmospheric parameters.
- Analyzed model residuals against seismic data for local and global earthquakes.
Main Results:
- A SARIMAX model (regARIMA(5,1,3)) was successfully developed to forecast radon concentrations.
- Model residuals were compared with seismic events that occurred during the measurement period.
Conclusions:
- The study demonstrates the feasibility of using statistical models to analyze radon time series.
- Further investigation is needed to confirm if continuously measured radon concentrations can reliably serve as an earthquake precursor.
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