Temporal lag in post-mining regrowth amplifies carbon loss in tropical forests during the period 2000-2023

Mining-induced deforestation is an under-recognized source of tropical forest carbon loss, and the extent to which post-mining regrowth offsets this loss remains unclear. Here, we reconstruct mining-related deforestation and subsequent forest regrowth across the tropics from 2000 to 2023 using high-resolution satellite observations. We estimate that mining causes ~4537 km² of deforestation, whereas post-mining regrowth covers ~300 km², equivalent to 6.6% of the deforested area. Forest regrowth also exhibits a pronounced temporal lag, with ~40% occurring more than five years after deforestation and ~16% occurring at least a decade later. Mining-related deforestation results in ~47.5 Tg C of carbon loss, while regrowth contributes ~3.8 Tg C of carbon gain, offsetting 8% of losses. These findings indicate that post-mining forest regrowth provides a limited carbon offset, highlighting the need to improve both the extent and timeliness of forest recovery in mining-affected tropical forests.