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Multistate modelling extended by behavioural rules: An application to migration.

Anna Klabunde1, Sabine Zinn2, Frans Willekens3

  • 1a Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research.

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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

This study enhances demographic models with behavioral rules, inspired by the Theory of Planned Behavior, to better predict migration patterns. Simulations show income growth in Senegal may increase emigration, while lower fertility could decrease it.

Keywords:
Theory of Planned Behaviouragent-based modellinginternational migrationlife course modellingmicrosimulationmultistate modelling

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Area of Science:

  • Demography
  • Social Sciences
  • Behavioral Economics

Background:

  • Demographic multistate models are crucial for population projections.
  • Existing models often lack the capacity to incorporate behavioral factors influencing transitions.
  • The Theory of Planned Behavior provides a framework for understanding intentions and actions.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To extend demographic multistate models by integrating a behavioral component.
  • To develop a novel framework for demographic projection that accounts for behavioral rules and their impact on transitions.
  • To model migration from Senegal to France using this enhanced approach.

Main Methods:

  • Incorporation of behavioral rules, derived from the Theory of Planned Behavior, into multistate models.
  • Parameter estimation using empirical data and calibration for parameters lacking empirical correspondence.
  • Model validation using age- and period-specific migration rates.

Main Results:

  • Simulations indicate that increased income growth in Senegal correlates with higher medium-term emigration rates.
  • A decrease in fertility in Senegal is projected to lead to lower emigration rates.
  • The model successfully incorporates non-linear influences of shocks and social factors on behavior.

Conclusions:

  • The proposed framework enhances demographic projection by adding a behavioral dimension.
  • This approach allows for the modeling of complex dynamics like social influence and external shocks.
  • The findings highlight the nuanced relationship between socioeconomic factors and migration intentions.