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Related Experiment Video

Updated: Feb 20, 2026

Following the Dynamics of Structural Variants in Experimentally Evolved Populations

Following the Dynamics of Structural Variants in Experimentally Evolved Populations

Published on: February 3, 2023

Predicting virus emergence amid evolutionary noise.

Jemma L Geoghegan¹, Edward C Holmes²

¹Department of Biological Sciences, Macquarie University, Sydney, New South Wales 2109, Australia.

|October 27, 2017

Summary

This summary is machine-generated.

Predicting virus disease emergence is challenging due to conflating time scales and numerous unsampled viruses. Understanding emergence requires integrating ecological and genetic factors, with surveillance being key for prevention.

Keywords:

emergence evolution phylogeny spill-over virosphere virus

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Area of Science:

Virology
Evolutionary Biology
Epidemiology
Population Genetics

Background:

Virus disease emergence is a critical biomedical research area.
Current prediction efforts often fail by mixing evolutionary and epidemiological time scales.
The vast number of unsampled viruses poses a significant challenge to prediction.

Purpose of the Study:

To critically evaluate current approaches to predicting virus disease emergence.
To propose a new mechanistic and integrated framework for understanding virus emergence.
To identify practical strategies for preventing and containing novel disease outbreaks.

Main Methods:

Analysis of evolutionary and epidemiological time scales in disease emergence studies.
Development of a population genetic framework integrating ecological and genetic factors.
Review of existing knowledge on virus evolution and cross-species transmission.

Main Results:

Predictive models often fail due to conflation of distinct evolutionary and epidemiological scales.
Phylogenetic data at family scales offer limited insight into short-term emergence processes.
Host population size and density are crucial factors in successful virus emergence, as explained by the proposed population genetic framework.

Conclusions:

A new integrated view is needed, combining ecological and genetic factors for understanding virus emergence.
The proposed population genetic framework offers insights into emergence dynamics.
Ongoing virological surveillance at the human-animal interface and in disturbed ecological regions is the most practical approach for prevention and containment.