A Preoperative Scale for Determining Surgical Readmission Risk After Total Knee Arthroplasty

Total knee arthroplasty (TKA) is one of the most common orthopaedic procedures performed in the U.S. The purpose of this study was to develop and verify a scale to preoperatively stratify a patient's risk of being readmitted to the hospital following a TKA.

Discharge data on 433,638 patients from New York and California (derivation cohort) and 269,934 patients from Florida and Washington (validation cohort) who underwent TKA were collected from the State Inpatient Database, a part of the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project of the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (2006 to 2011). Demographic and clinical characteristics of patients were abstracted and analyzed to develop the Readmission After Total Knee Arthroplasty (RATKA) Scale.

Overall 30-day readmission rates in the derivation and validation cohorts were 5.11% and 4.98%, respectively. The following factors were significantly associated with increased 30-day readmission rates in the derivation cohort: age of 41 to 50 years (odds ratio [OR] = 1.13), age of 71 to 80 years (OR = 1.21), age of 81 to 90 years (OR = 1.70), male sex (OR = 1.19), African-American race (OR = 1.37), "other" race/ethnicity (OR = 1.08), Medicaid payer (OR = 1.43), Medicare payer (OR = 1.27), anemia (OR = 1.19), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (OR = 1.29), coagulopathy (OR = 1.22), congestive heart failure (OR = 1.64), diabetes (OR = 1.19), fluid and electrolyte disorder (OR = 1.25), hypertension (OR = 1.10), liver disease (OR = 1.27), renal failure (OR = 1.33), and rheumatoid arthritis (OR = 1.14). These factors were used to create the RATKA Scale. The RATKA score was then used to define 3 levels of risk for readmission: low (RATKA score of <13; 3.7% readmission rate), moderate (RATKA score of 13 to 16; 5.4% readmission rate), and high (RATKA score of >16; 7.6% readmission rate). The relative risk of readmission was 2.06 for the high-risk group compared with the low-risk group.

The RATKA Scale derived from patient data from the derivation cohort was reliably able to explain readmission variability after TKA for patients in the validation cohort at a rate of >95%. Models such as the RATKA Scale will enable identification of the risk of readmission following TKA based on a patient's risk profile prior to surgery.

Prognostic Level III. See Instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.