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Two Wrongs Make a Right: Addressing Underreporting in Binary Data from Multiple Sources.

Scott J Cook1, Betsabe Blas2, Raymond J Carroll3,4

  • 1Department of Political Science, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843, USA.

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This study introduces a new statistical method to correct for underreported events in media data used for political science research. The approach improves data accuracy by accounting for multiple news sources and reduces bias in analyzing social conflict.

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Area of Science:

  • Political Science
  • Computational Social Science
  • Data Science

Background:

  • Media-based event data is crucial for political science but often suffers from underreporting, leading to biased analyses.
  • Existing methods to mitigate bias do not fully leverage information from multiple, overlapping news sources.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To propose a novel maximum likelihood estimator to correct for misclassification in media-based event data from multiple sources.
  • To enable researchers to test theories on both the causes of events and their reporting.
  • To improve the accuracy and reduce bias in political science research using event data.

Main Methods:

  • Developed a maximum likelihood estimator that corrects for misclassification in multi-source event data.
  • The estimator allows separate predictors for the true-event model and misclassification models for each source.
  • Utilized simulations to evaluate the performance of the proposed technique.

Main Results:

  • The proposed maximum likelihood estimator outperforms existing strategies that ignore misclassification or data-generating processes.
  • The method effectively corrects for underreporting and bias in media-based event data.
  • Demonstrated the method's utility with a case study on repression using the Social Conflict in Africa Database.

Conclusions:

  • The novel maximum likelihood estimator provides a robust solution for addressing misclassification in multi-source media event data.
  • This method enhances the reliability of political science research by producing more accurate and less biased event data.
  • Researchers can now more effectively study the causes and reporting of significant global events.