An information diffusion technique to assess integrated hazard risks
Chongfu Huang1, Yundong Huang2
1Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education of China, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China.
Abstract:
An integrated risk is a scene in the future associated with some adverse incident caused by multiple hazards. An integrated probability risk is the expected value of disaster. Due to the difficulty of assessing an integrated probability risk with a small sample, weighting methods and copulas are employed to avoid this obstacle. To resolve the problem, in this paper, we develop the information diffusion technique to construct a joint probability distribution and a vulnerability surface. Then, an integrated risk can be directly assessed by using a small sample. A case of an integrated risk caused by flood and earthquake is given to show how the suggested technique is used to assess the integrated risk of annual property loss.
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