Widespread recent increases in county-level heart disease mortality across age groups

Area of Science:

• Cardiovascular epidemiology
• Public health surveillance
• Geographic health disparities

Background:

• National trends indicate decelerating declines in heart disease mortality.
• These national trends may obscure significant variations in mortality rates across different geographic locations and age demographics.
• Understanding local patterns is crucial for effective public health interventions.

Purpose of the Study:

• To examine county-level trends in heart disease mortality across various age groups in the United States.
• To identify geographic and demographic variations in heart disease mortality rates.
• To inform targeted public health strategies for cardiovascular disease prevention.

Main Methods:

• Utilized the National Vital Statistics Systems data from 2010 to 2015.
• Employed a Bayesian statistical model to estimate mortality rates and percent changes.
• Analyzed data for 3098 US counties, stratified by four age groups (35-44, 45-54, 55-64, and 65-74 years).

Main Results:

• Nationally, heart disease mortality declined across most age groups, with the exception of ages 55-64 years.
• A significant proportion of counties (52.3% to 69.1%) experienced increases in heart disease mortality for younger age groups.
• Increases were more prevalent in counties with initially high mortality rates and in non-metropolitan areas.

Conclusions:

• Recent national data on heart disease mortality mask concerning local increases, particularly in younger adult populations.
• These findings underscore the need for intensified primary and secondary prevention efforts.
• Interventions should prioritize younger demographics and residents of less urbanized counties to reverse adverse trends.