[Survival time of HIV/AIDS cases and related factors in Beijing, 1995-2015]

Objective: To analyze the survival time of HIV/AIDS cases and related factors in Beijing from 1995 to 2015. Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted to analyze the data of 12 874 HIV/AIDS cases. The data were collected from Chinese HIV/AIDS Comprehensive Information Management System. Life table method was applied to calculate the survival proportion, and Cox proportion hazard regression model were used to identify the factors related with survival time. Results: Among 12 874 HIV/AIDS cases, 303 (2.4%) died of AIDS related diseases; 9 346 (72.6%) received antiretroviral therapy. The average survival time was 226.5 months (95%CI: 223.0-230.1), and the survival rates of 1, 5, 10, and 15 years were 98.2%, 96.4%, 93.2%, and 91.9% respectively. Multivariate Cox proportion hazard regression model showed that AIDS phase (HR=1.439, 95%CI: 1.041-1.989), heterosexual transmission (HR=1.646, 95%CI: 1.184-2.289), being married (HR=2.186, 95%CI: 1.510-3.164); older age (≥60 years) at diagnosis (HR=6.608, 95%CI: 3.546-12.316); lower CD(4)(+)T cell counts at diagnosis (<350 cells/μl) (HR=8.711, 95%CI: 5.757-13.181); receiving no antiretroviral therapy (ART) (HR=18.223, 95%CI: 13.317-24.937) were the high risk factors influencing the survival of AIDS patients compared with HIV phase, homosexual transmission, being unmarried, younger age (≤30 years), higher CD(4)(+)T cell count (≥350 cell/μl) and receiving ART. Conclusion: The average survival time of HIV/AIDS cases was 226.5 months after diagnoses. Receiving ART, higher CD(4)(+)T cell counts at the first test, HIV phase, younger age, being unmarried and the homosexual transmission were related to the longer survival time of HIV/AIDS cases. Receiving no ART, the lower CD(4)(+)T cell counts at the first test, AIDS phase, older age, being married and heterosexual transmission indicated higher risk of death due to AIDS.