[Simulation of an outbreak of Acinetobacter baumannii in hospitals]

Acinetobacter baumannii infections have increased over time becoming a significant issue. Consequently, those applications that allow to predict the evolution of an outbreak and the relevance of the different control methods, are very important. The design of mathematical models plays a central role in this topic.

Development of a deterministic mathematical model based on ordinary differential equations whose variables and parameters are defined upon the basis of knowledge of the epidemiology and characteristics of A. baumannii. This model is analyzed from a qualitative point of view and, also, its computational implementation is derived.

Several simulations were obtained developed from different initial conditions. The qualitative analysis of these simulations provides formal evidence of most effective control measures.

The implementation of the computational model is an extremely useful tool in terms of managing A. baumannii outbreaks. There is mathematical proof of the fact that the observance of efficient hygiene and screening rules reduces the number of infected patients.