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Meeting the Institute of Medicine's 2030 US Life Expectancy Target
David Kindig1, Jenna Nobles1, Moheb Zidan1
1David Kindig is with the Department of Population Health Sciences, University of Wisconsin-Madison. Jenna Nobles is with the Department of Sociology, University of Wisconsin-Madison. Moheb Zidan is with the Department of Economics, University of Wisconsin-Madison.
Objectives:
To quantify the improvement in US life expectancy required to reach parity with high-resource nations by 2030, to document historical precedent of this rate, and to discuss the plausibility of achieving this rate in the United States.
Methods:
We performed a demographic analysis of secondary data in 5-year periods from 1985 to 2015.
Results:
To achieve the United Nations projected mortality estimates for Western Europe in 2030, the US life expectancy must grow at 0.32% a year between 2016 and 2030. This rate has precedent, even in low-mortality populations. Over 204 country-periods examined, nearly half exhibited life-expectancy growth greater than 0.32%. Of the 51 US states observed, 8.2% of state-periods demonstrated life-expectancy growth that exceeded the 0.32% target.
Conclusions:
Achieving necessary growth in life expectancy over the next 15 years despite historical precedent will be challenging. Much all-cause mortality is structured decades earlier and, at present, older-age mortality reductions in the United States are decelerating. Addressing mortality decline at all ages will require enhanced political will and a strong commitment to equity improvement in the US population.
