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An SEI infection model incorporating media impact.
Xuejuan Lu1, Shaokai Wang2, Shengqiang Liu1
1Department of Mathematics, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150001, China
Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering : MBE
|November 23, 2017
Summary
Media coverage significantly impacts infectious disease dynamics. While sometimes reducing infections, increased media influence can paradoxically worsen outbreaks, posing challenges for disease control.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Mathematical Modeling
- Public Health Communication
Background:
- Infectious disease transmission is influenced by public behavior.
- Media coverage plays a role in shaping public perception and behavior during outbreaks.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the impact of media coverage on the spread and control of infectious diseases.
- To analyze the dynamics of an SEI (Susceptible-Exposed-Infective) model incorporating media influence on behavior.
Main Methods:
- Development and analysis of a mathematical SEI model.
- Inclusion of media coverage as a factor influencing individual contact rates.
- Definition and analysis of the basic reproductive number (R0).
- Investigation of model stability and Hopf bifurcation.
Main Results:
- The basic reproductive number (R0) determines disease extinction (R0<1) or endemicity (R0>1).
- Media influence can lead to a stable endemic equilibrium or, beyond a threshold, Hopf bifurcation causing multiple equilibria.
- Numerical simulations show media coverage can decrease infection peaks but may increase average infectives with higher R0.
Conclusions:
- Media coverage has a complex, dual effect on infectious disease dynamics.
- While potentially beneficial for control, increased media influence can exacerbate endemic diseases, especially with high R0.
- Effective infectious disease control strategies must consider the nuanced impact of public health communication and media coverage.
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