Species selection under long-term experimental warming and drought explained by climatic distributions

Global warming and reduced precipitation may trigger large-scale species losses and vegetation shifts in ecosystems around the world. However, currently lacking are practical ways to quantify the sensitivity of species and community composition to these often-confounded climatic forces. Here we conducted long-term (16 yr) nocturnal-warming (+0.6°C) and reduced precipitation (-20% soil moisture) experiments in a Mediterranean shrubland. Climatic niche groups (CNGs) - species ranked or classified by similar temperature or precipitation distributions - informatively described community responses under experimental manipulations. Under warming, CNGs revealed that only those species distributed in cooler regions decreased. Correspondingly, under reduced precipitation, a U-shaped treatment effect observed in the total community was the result of an abrupt decrease in wet-distributed species, followed by a delayed increase in dry-distributed species. Notably, while partially correlated, CNG explanations of community response were stronger for their respective climate parameter, suggesting some species possess specific adaptations to either warming or drought that may lead to independent selection to the two climatic variables. Our findings indicate that when climatic distributions are combined with experiments, the resulting incorporation of local plant evolutionary strategies and their changing dynamics over time leads to predictable and informative shifts in community structure under independent climate change scenarios.