Simulating post-wildfire forest trajectories under alternative climate and management scenarios

Area of Science:

• Forestry
• Climate Change Ecology
• Forest Management

Background:

• Forest recovery predictions are crucial for effective management decisions, especially post-wildfire.
• Climate change and management actions significantly influence long-term forest dynamics.

Purpose of the Study:

• To compare alternative climate and management scenarios for post-fire forest recovery using the Climate-Forest Vegetation Simulator (Climate-FVS).
• To assess the impact of different General Circulation Model (GCM) and emissions scenarios on forest condition over 100 years.
• To evaluate the efficacy of various forest management strategies in sustaining future forests under changing climate conditions.

Main Methods:

• Application of the Climate-Forest Vegetation Simulator (Climate-FVS) to a multispecies forest in Arizona, USA.
• Comparison of seven GCM-emissions scenario combinations against a No Climate Change (NCC) scenario.
• Testing of six management strategies, including prescribed burning and thinning, under different climate scenarios.

Main Results:

• High greenhouse gas emissions scenarios led to near-complete deforestation by 2111.
• Less severe GCM-emissions scenarios reduced forest structure and carbon stock compared to NCC.
• Prescribed burning treatments fostered low-density, wildfire-resistant forests, particularly under moderate climate change.
• Non-fire treatments under moderate climate change resulted in dense, wildfire-susceptible forests with a shift to sprouting species.

Conclusions:

• Climate change substantially alters forest recovery predictions, necessitating its integration into management planning.
• Prescribed burning emerges as a key strategy for creating resilient forests under moderate climate change.
• Forest managers must incorporate climate change considerations into environmental impact analyses for alternative actions.