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Chaos and the (un)predictability of evolution in a changing environment
Artur Rego-Costa1,2, Florence Débarre3, Luis-Miguel Chevin1
1CEFE-CNRS, UMR 5175, 1919 route de Mende, 34293 Montpellier Cedex 05, France.
Evolution; International Journal of Organic Evolution
|December 14, 2017
Summary
Chaos in evolution, while possible, may not reduce predictability. Environmental changes can dampen chaotic oscillations, making evolutionary trajectories more predictable, even with frequency-dependent selection.
Area of Science:
- Evolutionary biology
- Ecological dynamics
- Chaos theory
Background:
- Chaos in phenotypic evolution is often linked to frequency-dependent selection.
- Environmental stochasticity and genetic drift are more studied factors affecting evolutionary predictability than chaos.
- External environmental changes can influence evolutionary dynamics in systems prone to chaos.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the interaction between environmental forcing and the internal dynamics of eco-evolutionary systems.
- To determine how environmental oscillations affect the predictability of evolution in systems that would otherwise exhibit chaos.
- To assess the impact of environmental forcing strength on the probability and magnitude of evolutionary chaos.
Main Methods:
- Modeling eco-evolutionary dynamics in a system with frequency-dependent selection.
- Introducing oscillating environmental forcing to an otherwise chaotic system.
- Analyzing the effects of varying environmental forcing strength on evolutionary predictability.
Main Results:
- Strong environmental forcing can reduce the probability of chaos and dampen chaotic oscillations, thereby increasing predictability.
- Weak environmental forcing can increase the probability of chaos but also leads evolutionary trajectories to track the environment more closely.
- Environmental forcing can alter the conditions under which chaos arises in evolutionary systems.
Conclusions:
- Chaos does not necessarily imply unpredictability in evolution.
- Environmental forcing plays a crucial role in modulating the impact of chaos on evolutionary dynamics.
- Evolutionary predictability can be maintained or even enhanced under certain environmental conditions, despite the potential for chaos.
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