Hidden early-warning signals in scale-free networks
Georg Jäger1, Christian Hofer1, Marie Kapeller1
1Institute of Systems Sciences, Innovation and Sustainability Research, University of Graz, Graz, Austria.
Plos One
|December 19, 2017
Summary
Early-warning signals (EWS) predict critical transitions in complex systems. This study reveals how network topology can obscure EWS and proposes a method to reveal hidden signals by examining the system's effective state.
Area of Science:
- Complex systems science
- Network theory
- Statistical physics
Background:
- Critical transitions in complex systems can be anticipated using early-warning signals (EWS).
- However, EWS detectability is sometimes limited, even when transitions are imminent.
- The network topology of a system influences the detectability of these crucial signals.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the relationship between network topology and EWS detectability in complex systems.
- To identify specific network structures that hinder or allow for EWS detection.
- To develop an adapted approach for uncovering EWS in systems with complex topologies.
Main Methods:
- Simulated scale-free networks to analyze EWS detectability.
- Utilized a two-state system model exhibiting critical transitions.
- Adapted the analysis by examining the system's effective state instead of its natural state.
Main Results:
- Identified specific scale-free network topologies that either facilitate or obscure EWS.
- Demonstrated that EWS can be hidden in systems with complex network structures.
- The proposed adaptation successfully revealed otherwise obscured EWS.
Conclusions:
- Network topology is a critical factor influencing the detectability of early-warning signals.
- Examining the effective state of a system can overcome limitations imposed by complex topologies.
- This approach enhances the predictability of critical transitions in complex systems.
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