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Detecting Environment-Dependent Diversification From Phylogenies: A Simulation Study and Some Empirical

Eric Lewitus1, Hélène Morlon1

  • 1IBENS, Département de Biologie, Ecole Normale Supérieure, CNRS, Inserm, PSL Research University, F-75005 Paris, France.

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Macroevolutionary studies now use phylogenetic methods to assess how environmental factors influence speciation and extinction rates. This research validates these models using paleodatasets and simulations, showing their effectiveness in understanding diversification dynamics.

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Area of Science:

  • Macroevolutionary biology
  • Phylogenetics
  • Paleoecology

Background:

  • Understanding drivers of diversification is key in macroevolution.
  • Phylogenetic methods using time-calibrated trees and paleoenvironmental data estimate environmental influences on diversification.
  • Current methods effectively estimate speciation and extinction rate variations with abiotic factors like temperature and sea level.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To compile biotic and abiotic paleodatasets for use in macroevolutionary models.
  • To assess the statistical properties and performance of environment-dependent diversification models using simulations.
  • To infer environment-dependent diversification in empirical phylogenies (Cetacea and Ruminantia).

Main Methods:

  • Compilation of biotic and abiotic paleodatasets.
  • Simulations to test statistical properties of environment-dependent models.
  • Application of models to empirical phylogenies (Cetacea and Ruminantia) using temperature and $\delta^{13}C$ data.

Main Results:

  • Environment-dependent models accurately recover speciation and extinction parameters.
  • Models correctly identify the environmental drivers when speciation is environment-dependent.
  • Model performance is influenced by environment-dependency strength, tree size, missing taxa, and paleoenvironmental curve characteristics.

Conclusions:

  • Environment-dependent models are statistically robust for macroevolutionary analyses.
  • These models successfully infer diversification patterns linked to specific environmental variables in empirical clades.
  • The study provides a crucial statistical assessment for utilizing paleoenvironmental data in macroevolutionary research.