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Published on: June 24, 2019
Ocean eddies and climate predictability.
Ben P Kirtman1, Natalie Perlin1, Leo Siqueira1
1Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Miami - Rosenstiel School for Marine and Atmospheric Science, Miami, Florida 33149-1098, USA.
Mesoscale ocean features significantly boost sea surface temperature variance and enhance climate predictability. These ocean dynamics improve the connection between sea surface temperature signals and weather noise, crucial for understanding climate variability.
Area of Science:
- Climate Science
- Oceanography
- Atmospheric Science
Background:
- Mesoscale ocean features play a role in climate variability and air-sea interactions.
- Understanding these interactions is key to improving climate predictability.
- Coupled climate models are essential tools for studying these phenomena.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the impact of resolved mesoscale ocean features on climate variability, air-sea interactions, and predictability.
- To amplify the role of oceanic mesoscale fields and air-sea feedbacks using an interactive ensemble coupling strategy.
- To diagnose the influence of atmospheric noise on variability and predictability using signal-to-noise ratios.
Main Methods:
- Utilized coupled climate model simulations and experiments, including control and interactive ensemble coupling simulations.
- Assessed climate variability through sea surface temperature (SST) variance ratios.
- Analyzed air-sea coupling changes using convective rainfall-SST and convective rainfall-SST tendency correlations.
- Employed signal-to-noise ratios to diagnose the relationship between SST-forced signals and weather noise.
Main Results:
- Mesoscale ocean variability significantly increases SST variance.
- The presence of mesoscale ocean features further enhances SST variance in interactive ensemble simulations.
- Oceanic mesoscale features alter the local association between convective rainfall and SST.
- Mesoscale ocean features significantly strengthen the link between SST-forced signals and weather noise, especially in eddy-rich regions.
Conclusions:
- Mesoscale ocean activity enhances model-estimated predictability for convective precipitation and upper tropospheric circulation.
- Resolved mesoscale ocean features are critical components influencing climate variability and predictability.
- The interactive ensemble coupling strategy effectively highlights the impact of oceanic mesoscale fields on air-sea feedbacks.

