Host and parasite thermal ecology jointly determine the effect of climate warming on epidemic dynamics

Host-parasite systems have intricately coupled life cycles, but each interactor can respond differently to changes in environmental variables like temperature. Although vital to predicting how parasitism will respond to climate change, thermal responses of both host and parasite in key traits affecting infection dynamics have rarely been quantified. Through temperature-controlled experiments on an ectothermic host-parasite system, we demonstrate an offset in the thermal optima for survival of infected and uninfected hosts and parasite production. We combine experimentally derived thermal performance curves with field data on seasonal host abundance and parasite prevalence to parameterize an epidemiological model and forecast the dynamical responses to plausible future climate-warming scenarios. In warming scenarios within the coastal southeastern United States, the model predicts sharp declines in parasite prevalence, with local parasite extinction occurring with as little as 2 °C warming. The northern portion of the parasite's current range could experience local increases in transmission, but assuming no thermal adaptation of the parasite, we find no evidence that the parasite will expand its range northward under warming. This work exemplifies that some host populations may experience reduced parasitism in a warming world and highlights the need to measure host and parasite thermal performance to predict infection responses to climate change.