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Global Human Appropriation of Net Primary Production and Associated Resource Decoupling: 2010-2050
Chuanbin Zhou1,2, Ayman Elshkaki1, T E Graedel1
1Center for Industrial Ecology, School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale University , 195 Prospect Street, New Haven, Connecticut 06511, United States.
Environmental Science & Technology
|January 11, 2018
Summary
Global biomass demand will increase by 2050, with human appropriation of net primary production (HANPP) rising significantly. Future HANPP will largely consist of residues and losses, particularly in developing regions.
Area of Science:
- Ecology
- Environmental Science
- Sustainability Science
Background:
- Human appropriation of net primary production (HANPP) quantifies anthropogenic biomass extraction.
- Limited research exists on future HANPP trends and their drivers.
Purpose of the Study:
- To project global biomass demand and HANPPharv (harvested component) from 2010 to 2050.
- To analyze future HANPP trends across different socioeconomic scenarios.
Main Methods:
- Developed four global scenarios incorporating historical drivers and disaggregated biomass demand (food, wood, fuelwood).
- Projected biomass demand and HANPPharv for each scenario.
Main Results:
- Biomass demand varies significantly across scenarios, lowest in 'equitability' and highest in 'security foremost'.
- Global HANPPharv is projected to increase by 14-35% by 2050.
- Crop residues, wood residues, and food losses will constitute approximately 50% of future HANPPharv.
- Developing regions show faster HANPPharv growth due to urbanization, population, and income increases.
Conclusions:
- Future HANPPharv will significantly increase, driven by rising demand for food and materials.
- Residues and losses represent a substantial portion of future biomass extraction.
- Discusses the potential decoupling of HANPPharv from socioeconomic development.
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