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Sudden-death aversion: Avoiding superior options because they feel riskier
Jesse Walker1, Jane L Risen2, Thomas Gilovich1
1Department of Psychology, Cornell University.
Journal of Personality and Social Psychology
|January 17, 2018
Summary
Decision-makers often avoid high-reward "fast" strategies for safer "slow" ones, a phenomenon called sudden-death aversion (SDA). This tendency, driven by loss aversion and fear of tempting fate, can incur significant costs.
Area of Science:
- Decision Science
- Behavioral Economics
- Psychology
Background:
- Individuals often face choices between strategies with high potential reward but also high risk, versus strategies with lower reward but greater safety.
- Sudden-death aversion (SDA) describes the tendency to avoid high-risk, high-reward options in favor of safer, lower-reward alternatives.
Purpose of the Study:
- To provide evidence for sudden-death aversion (SDA) across various domains.
- To explore the psychological mechanisms underlying SDA, specifically myopic loss aversion and concerns about 'tempting fate'.
Main Methods:
- Archival analysis of NFL and NBA game strategies.
- Controlled experiments involving military scenarios and decision-making tasks.
- Examination of how framing and necessity influence risk perception.
Main Results:
- Evidence of SDA was found in sports (NFL, NBA) and military contexts.
- SDA is partly driven by myopic loss aversion, where immediate losses are overweighted.
- Concerns about 'tempting fate' and differential expectations of blame contribute to SDA.
Conclusions:
- Sudden-death aversion is a prevalent bias influencing decisions in diverse fields.
- Understanding the mechanisms of SDA is crucial for improving strategic decision-making.
- SDA can lead to suboptimal outcomes due to risk-averse choices and fear of negative consequences.
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