Mortality from idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis: a temporal trend analysis in Brazil, 1979-2014

To analyze mortality from idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) in Brazil over the period 1979-2014.

Microdata were extracted from the Brazilian National Ministry of Health Mortality Database. Only deaths for which the underlying cause was coded as International Classification of Diseases version 9 (ICD-9) 515 or 516.3 (until 1995) or as ICD version 10 (ICD-10) J84.1 (from 1996 onward) were included in our analysis. Standardized mortality rates were calculated for the 2010 Brazilian population. The annual trend in mortality rates was analyzed by joinpoint regression. We calculated risk ratios (RRs) by age group, time period of death, and gender, using a person-years denominator.

A total of 32,092 deaths were recorded in the study period. Standardized mortality rates trended upward, rising from 0.24/100,000 population in 1979 to 1.10/100,000 population in 2014. The annual upward trend in mortality rates had two inflection points, in 1992 and 2008, separating three distinct time segments with an annual growth of 2.2%, 6.8%, and 2.4%, respectively. The comparison of RRs for the age groups, using the 50- to 54-year age group as a reference, and for the study period, using 1979-1984 as a reference, were 16.14 (14.44-16.36) and 6.71 (6.34-7.12), respectively. Men compared with women had higher standardized mortality rates (per 100,000 person-years) in all age groups.

Brazilian IPF mortality rates are lower than those of other countries, suggesting underdiagnosis or underreporting. The temporal trend is similar to those reported in the literature and is not explained solely by population aging.