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Throughout its ~4.5 billion year history, the Earth has experienced periods of warming and cooling. However, the current drastic increase in global temperatures is well outside of the Earth’s cyclic norms, and evidence for human-caused global climate change is compelling. Paleoclimatology, the study of ancient climate conditions, provides ample evidence for human-caused global climate change by comparing recent conditions with those in the past.
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The free energy change for a process may be viewed as a measure of its driving force. A negative value for ΔG represents a driving force for the process in the forward direction, while a positive value represents a driving force for the process in the reverse direction. When ΔGrxn is zero, the forward and reverse driving forces are equal, and the process occurs in both directions at the same rate (the system is at equilibrium).
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A reversible chemical reaction represents a chemical process that proceeds in both forward (left to right) and reverse (right to left) directions. When the rates of the forward and reverse reactions are equal, the concentrations of the reactant and product species remain constant over time and the system is at equilibrium. A special double arrow is used to emphasize the reversible nature of the reaction. The relative concentrations of reactants and products in equilibrium systems vary greatly;...
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Non-equilibrium Microwave Plasma for Efficient High Temperature Chemistry
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Emergent constraint on equilibrium climate sensitivity from global temperature variability.

Peter M Cox1, Chris Huntingford2, Mark S Williamson1

  • 1College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Science, University of Exeter, Exeter EX4 4QF, UK.

Nature
|January 19, 2018
PubMed
Summary

New research refines equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), a key measure of global warming from doubled carbon dioxide (CO2). This study provides a tighter, more reliable ECS range, crucial for climate change mitigation efforts and international agreements.

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Area of Science:

  • Climate Science
  • Earth System Science

Background:

  • Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) quantifies global warming from doubled atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2).
  • The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 'likely' ECS range of 1.5-4.5°C has persisted for over 25 years.
  • A high ECS value jeopardizes the Paris Agreement goal of limiting warming to 2°C.

Observation:

  • This study introduces a novel emergent constraint on ECS.
  • The approach focuses on global temperature variability relative to long-term warming trends.
  • An ensemble of climate models reveals a relationship between ECS and a metric of temperature variability.

Findings:

  • A new central ECS estimate of 2.8°C is presented, with a 66% confidence range of 2.2-3.4°C.
  • This emergent constraint significantly reduces the probability of ECS being below 1.5°C (to <3%) or above 4.5°C (to <1%).
  • Observational data confirms this refined ECS range.

Implications:

  • The findings provide a more robust understanding of future warming potential.
  • This improved ECS estimate aids in assessing the feasibility of climate targets like the Paris Agreement.
  • Reduced uncertainty in ECS enhances climate change modeling and policy development.