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Historical deforestation drives strong rainfall decline across the southern Amazon basin
Jiangpeng Cui1, Shilong Piao2, Chris Huntingford3
1State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System, Environment and Resources (TPESER), Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China. cuijp@itpcas.ac.cn.
Nature Communications
|January 13, 2026
Summary
Human-induced deforestation in the Amazon has reduced southern Amazon precipitation by 8-11%. This drying is primarily linked to forest loss, impacting moisture transport and atmospheric stability.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Atmospheric Science
- Climate Science
Background:
- The Amazon rainforest has undergone significant human-induced deforestation.
- The impact of historical deforestation on regional precipitation via atmospheric moisture transport is not fully understood.
Purpose of the Study:
- To quantify the feedbacks between deforestation and precipitation in the Amazon basin over the past four decades.
- To assess the role of atmospheric moisture transport in observed precipitation changes.
Main Methods:
- Combined satellite observations and an atmospheric moisture tracking model.
- Analyzed precipitation trends from 1980 to 2019.
Main Results:
- Identified a dipole trend: increased precipitation in the north, decreased in the south.
- Southern Amazon precipitation declined by 3.9-5.4 mm/yr (8-11% decrease).
- 52-72% of this reduction is attributed to deforestation in the southern basin and adjacent South American regions.
Conclusions:
- Deforestation suppresses forest moisture, increases atmospheric stability, and reduces precipitation.
- Climate models underestimate precipitation sensitivity to deforestation.
- The Amazon forest may face critical loss sooner than projected.
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