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Methods of Soil Resampling to Monitor Changes in the Chemical Concentrations of Forest Soils
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Fire forbids fifty-fifty forest.

Egbert H van Nes1, Arie Staal1, Stijn Hantson2

  • 1Aquatic Ecology and Water Quality Management Group, Environmental Science Department, Wageningen University, Wageningen, The Netherlands.

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|January 20, 2018
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Summary

Tropical forests with intermediate tree cover may be unstable. Wildfire frequency sharply increases below 40% tree cover, suggesting a tipping point that can lead to abrupt shifts between forest and savanna states.

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Area of Science:

  • Ecology
  • Remote Sensing
  • Climate Science

Background:

  • Recent studies suggest intermediate tropical tree cover is unstable, potentially tipping to closed forest or savanna.
  • Remotely sensed data show patterns interpreted as instability in these intermediate states.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the instability of intermediate tree cover.
  • To determine the relationship between tree cover, wildfire frequency, and potential tipping points.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of remotely sensed tree cover data across continents.
  • Development of a simple empirical model incorporating tree growth and fire-driven mortality.
  • Comparison of observed tree cover distributions with model predictions.

Main Results:

  • Wildfire frequency increases sharply when tree cover drops below approximately 40% globally.
  • Empirical modeling supports the hypothesis that intermediate tree cover (30-60%) is unstable due to fire-driven mortality.
  • Observed tropical tree cover distributions align with the proposed fire-driven instability model.

Conclusions:

  • Fire-driven instability creates sharp, difficult-to-reverse shifts between closed forest and open states.
  • Intermediate tree cover is not a stable equilibrium and can rapidly transition under stress.
  • Percolation of fire is a key factor, but simple models do not fully explain the observed fire frequency threshold.