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Related Experiment Video

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The Innovation Arena: A Method for Comparing Innovative Problem-Solving Across Groups
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Climatic shocks associate with innovation in science and technology.

Carsten K W De Dreu1,2, Mathijs A van Dijk3

  • 1Institute of Psychology, Leiden University, Leiden, The Netherlands.

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|January 25, 2018
PubMed
Summary

Periods of cold weather and volcanic dust veils historically spurred scientific discovery and technological innovation. Harsher climate conditions, linked to economic pressures, drove innovation rates across Europe over 500 years.

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Area of Science:

  • Historical climate science
  • Science and technology studies
  • Economic history

Background:

  • Human history is marked by fluctuating rates of scientific discovery and technological innovation.
  • The drivers behind these fluctuations, particularly the interplay between environmental pressures and innovation, are not fully understood.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the relationship between climatic variability and rates of scientific discovery and technological innovation.
  • To determine if climate-induced economic pressures and resource scarcity mediate this relationship.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of annual time-series data on scientific discovery and technological innovation in Europe (1500-1900 CE) and the UK, France, and Germany (1901-1965 CE).
  • Statistical fitting of innovation rates to climatic data, including surface temperature and volcanic dust veils.
  • Path analysis to examine mediating factors such as economic pressures and resource scarcity.

Main Results:

  • Higher rates of innovation were observed during prolonged cold periods and the presence of volcanic dust veils in Europe (1500-1900 CE).
  • A negative correlation between temperature and innovation was confirmed in later European data (1901-1965 CE), with a 0.5°C increase associated with a 0.30-0.60 standard deviation decrease in innovation.
  • Climate-induced economic pressures and resource scarcity were identified as mediators linking harsher climatic conditions to increased innovation.

Conclusions:

  • Climatic variability, particularly colder temperatures and associated economic pressures, has historically stimulated scientific discovery and technological innovation.
  • Understanding these historical links provides insights into potential adaptive responses to future environmental and economic challenges.