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[Significance of p-values: misinterpreted and overrated]
1LUMC, afd. Klinische Epidemiologie en afd. Interne Geneeskunde, Leiden.
Abstract:
- An often provided interpretation of a significant p-value (p < 0.05) is that 'the probability the conclusion is incorrect, is only 5%'. This interpretation is incorrect.- It can be shown that for observational studies, in case of p < 0.05, the probability of a false positive signal is around 50%. This means that significant p-values give us much less certainty about the reliability of a conclusion than we like to believe.- Much would be gained already if the emphasis on p-values would be replaced by: (a) an estimation of the effect size in combination with the corresponding statistical uncertainty (represented by the confidence interval), (b) an assessment of the clinical relevance of that effect, and
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