Diagnostic and prognostic value of amyloid PET textural and shape features: comparison with classical...

We evaluated the performance of amyloid PET textural and shape features in discriminating normal and Alzheimer's disease (AD) subjects, and in predicting conversion to AD in subjects with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) or significant memory concern (SMC). Subjects from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative with available baseline ¹⁸F-florbetapir and T1-MRI scans were included. The cross-sectional cohort consisted of 181 controls and 148 AD subjects. The longitudinal cohort consisted of 431 SMC/MCI subjects, 85 of whom converted to AD during follow-up. PET images were normalized to MNI space and post-processed using in-house software. Relative retention indices (SUVr) were computed with respect to pontine, cerebellar, and composite reference regions. Several textural and shape features were extracted then combined using a support vector machine (SVM) to build a predictive model of AD conversion. Diagnostic and prognostic performance was evaluated using ROC analysis and survival analysis with the Cox proportional hazard model. The three SUVr and all the tested features effectively discriminated AD subjects in cross-sectional analysis (all p < 0.001). In longitudinal analysis, the variables with the highest prognostic value were composite SUVr (AUC 0.86; accuracy 81%), skewness (0.87; 83%), local minima (0.85; 79%), Geary's index (0.86; 81%), gradient norm maximal argument (0.83; 82%), and the SVM model (0.91; 86%). The adjusted hazard ratio for AD conversion was 5.5 for the SVM model, compared with 4.0, 2.6, and 3.8 for cerebellar, pontine and composite SUVr (all p < 0.001), indicating that appropriate amyloid textural and shape features predict conversion to AD with at least as good accuracy as classical SUVr.