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Abducting Economics.

James J Heckman¹, Burton Singer²

¹University of Chicago, Department of Economics, University of Chicago, 1126 East 59th Street, Chicago, IL 60637.

The American Economic Review

|February 13, 2018

Summary

Economists use abduction, a method of generating hypotheses and models, to analyze surprising findings. This iterative process involves dynamically engaging both models and data for evolving explanations.

Keywords:

B41 C18 abduction empirical economics learning from data surprise

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Area of Science:

Economics
Econometrics
Scientific Methodology

Background:

Empirical economics relies on the process of abduction for generating and selecting models and hypotheses.
Explanations in economic studies often evolve alongside the research process.

Purpose of the Study:

To challenge traditional views on the "identification problem" in economics.
To advocate for an integrated approach to model/hypothesis creation and data inference.

Main Methods:

Adopting an abductive approach, which involves iterative engagement with models and data.
Utilizing multiple models and data sources in a dynamic, back-and-forth process.
Augmenting both models and data as learning progresses.

Main Results:

The abductive approach encourages economists to move beyond rigid separations in analysis.
It fosters a more dynamic and integrated process of economic inquiry.
This method allows for the continuous refinement of explanations through interaction with evidence.

Conclusions:

Abduction is a crucial, albeit often implicit, tool for empirical economists.
Integrating model/hypothesis generation with data inference enhances economic understanding.
The abductive framework promotes a more flexible and adaptive research methodology.