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It can become 5 °C warmer: The extremity effect in climate forecasts
Karl Halvor Teigen1, Petra Filkuková2, Sigrid Møyner Hohle2
1Department of Psychology, University of Oslo.
Journal of Experimental Psychology. Applied
|February 13, 2018
Summary
People interpret "can happen" climate statements as extreme possibilities, not just uncertain ones. This perception of high likelihood for extreme events may cause significant miscommunication regarding climate change impacts.
Area of Science:
- Climate Science
- Cognitive Psychology
- Linguistics
Background:
- Climate change communication frequently uses modal verbs like 'can' to express uncertainty.
- The interpretation of these modal verbs, particularly 'can,' in climate projections remains under-examined.
- Existing research on uncertainty terms has not focused on the specific usage of modal verbs in climate contexts.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate how people interpret modal verbs, specifically 'can,' in climate change projections.
- To test the extremity hypothesis regarding the use of 'can' statements in describing climate outcomes.
- To explore the potential for miscommunication arising from the interpretation of such statements.
Main Methods:
- Five experiments were conducted involving participants viewing climate projection graphs and statements.
- Participants were presented with projections related to global warming and sea level rise.
- The extremity hypothesis was tested by analyzing how 'can' statements were associated with outcome distributions.
Main Results:
- Consistent support for the extremity hypothesis was found across studies.
- 'Can' statements were used to denote the highest values in outcome distributions, irrespective of their actual probability.
- This 'extremity effect' was replicated in English and Norwegian, and with related terms like 'possible,' 'could,' and 'may.'
Conclusions:
- Statements using 'can' are interpreted as representing extreme outcomes, not just possibilities.
- Despite referring to extreme events, these 'can' statements are perceived as having a substantial likelihood of occurrence.
- The combination of perceived extremity and exaggerated likelihood can lead to significant miscommunication in climate change discourse.
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