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Published on: June 30, 2017
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Demographically diverse crowds are typically not much wiser than homogeneous crowds
Stephanie de Oliveira1, Richard E Nisbett1
1Department of Psychology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 sdeochen@umich.edu nisbett@umich.edu.
Summary
Social diversity can enhance crowd accuracy, but only under specific conditions. Homogeneous crowds rarely outperform diverse crowds significantly, limiting the practical "wisdom of crowds" effect.
Area of Science:
- Social Psychology
- Decision Science
- Collective Intelligence
Background:
- Averaging independent judgments, known as the "wisdom of crowds," typically improves accuracy with large, diverse samples.
- Laypersons often rely on small, homogeneous convenience samples, raising questions about their wisdom compared to diverse groups.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the conditions under which small, socially diverse crowds can outperform socially homogeneous crowds.
- To assess the practical implications of social diversity for collective judgment accuracy.
Main Methods:
- Conducted simulations and survey studies to model and test crowd performance.
- Examined the influence of social identity on judgment and the relationship between group estimates and the true value.
Main Results:
- Identified three necessary conditions for diverse crowds to outperform homogeneous ones: social identity predicting judgment, moderate effect size, and "bracketing" of the truth by group averages.
- Survey studies indicated these conditions are seldom met in real-world judgment tasks.
- Observed that social diversity typically enhances crowd wisdom by a very small margin.
Conclusions:
- While social diversity can theoretically improve collective judgment, its practical impact is often minimal due to unmet conditions.
- The
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