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Do People Inherently Dislike Uncertain Advice?

Celia Gaertig1, Joseph P Simmons1

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People prefer confident advisors, but not necessarily certain advice. Studies show individuals do not dislike uncertain advice and may even prefer advisors who offer it over those who provide false certainty.

Keywords:
adviceopen dataopen materialsoverconfidencepreregistereduncertainty

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Area of Science:

  • Decision-making
  • Behavioral economics
  • Social psychology

Background:

  • Previous research indicates a preference for confident advisors over uncertain ones.
  • However, it remains unclear whether this preference extends to the uncertainty of the advice itself.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate whether people dislike uncertain advice or merely confident advisors.
  • To determine if uncertainty in advice impacts preference and choice.

Main Methods:

  • Conducted 11 studies with 4,806 participants.
  • Participants received advice on uncertain events and rated advice quality or chose between advisors.
  • Manipulated advisor confidence and advice certainty (e.g., ranges, probabilities).

Main Results:

  • Replicated findings that confident advisors are judged more favorably than uncertain ones.
  • Crucially, participants did not prefer certain advice; they did not dislike advice expressing uncertainty.
  • When given a choice, participants preferred advisors offering uncertain advice over those offering certain advice.

Conclusions:

  • People do not inherently dislike uncertain advice.
  • Advisors benefit from expressing confidence, but not from conveying false certainty.
  • Distinguishing between advisor confidence and advice certainty is key.