Measuring illicit cigarette trade in Colombia

Area of Science:

• Public Health
• Economics
• Tobacco Control

Background:

• Tobacco industry historically provided illicit trade estimates in Colombia to resist tax hikes.
• Policymakers required independent data on illicit cigarette prevalence to assess excise tax increases.

Purpose of the Study:

• Estimate illicit cigarette trade volume in five major Colombian cities.
• Analyze characteristics of illicit cigarette consumers.
• Compare findings with industry-funded survey data.

Main Methods:

• Cross-sectional street survey of 1697 smokers aged 12+ in five cities.
• Data collected via self-report on consumption and purchase, plus pack observation.
• Sampling weighted by age and city, with 95% confidence level.

Main Results:

• Illicit cigarettes constituted 3.5% of total consumption across the surveyed cities.
• Significant variation observed: Bogotá (1.5%) to Cúcuta (22.8%).
• Estimates were substantially lower than industry-provided figures.

Conclusions:

• Low illicit cigarette prevalence undermines tobacco industry arguments against tax increases.
• City-level variations suggest tax policy is not the sole determinant of illicit consumption.
• Findings support the viability of excise tax adjustments for public health goals.