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Published on: March 31, 2023
Internal climate variability and projected future regional steric and dynamic sea level rise
1Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, 80307, USA. ahu@ucar.edu.
Lowering emissions significantly reduces global sea level rise (SLR) later this century. However, regional variations exist, with some areas like the Philippines showing minimal SLR reduction due to ocean dynamics.
Area of Science:
- Climate Science
- Oceanography
- Sea Level Rise Research
Background:
- Global climate warming is causing sea level rise (SLR), significantly impacting coastal and island communities.
- Internal climate processes can regionally modulate projected future SLR, but dependence on emission pathways is unclear.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the potential reduction in steric and dynamic sea level rise (SLR) by adopting a lower emission scenario compared to a business-as-usual one.
- To analyze how regional modulation of SLR reduction by internal climate variability differs between emission pathways over the 21st century.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of two sets of ensemble simulations from a climate model.
- Comparison of steric and dynamic oceanographic effects on SLR under different emission scenarios (lower vs. business-as-usual).
Main Results:
- Near-term (21st century) steric and dynamic SLR shows no statistically significant difference globally or regionally between the two emission scenarios.
- Statistically significant global mean SLR reduction is observed later in the century (2061-2080) under the lower emission scenario.
- Insignificant SLR reduction occurs in specific regions, like the Philippines and west of Australia, linked to ocean dynamics and intensified internal variability.
Conclusions:
- Mitigating emissions can lead to substantial SLR reduction later in the 21st century, but the effect is not uniform across all regions.
- Internal climate variability and regional ocean dynamics play a crucial role in modulating the effectiveness of emission reductions on local sea level rise.
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