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Direct Stochastic Optical Reconstruction Microscopy of Extracellular Vesicles in Three Dimensions
Published on: August 26, 2021
The Relative Contribution of Direct and Environmental Transmission Routes in Stochastic Avian Flu Epidemic
May Anne Mata1, Priscilla Greenwood2, Rebecca Tyson3
1Barber School of Arts and Sciences, University of British Columbia Okanagan, Kelowna, BC, Canada. memata@up.edu.ph.
Abstract:
We present an analysis of an avian flu model that yields insight into the roles of different transmission routes in the recurrence of avian influenza epidemics. Recent modelling work suggests that the outbreak periodicity of the disease is mainly determined by the environmental transmission rate. This conclusion, however, is based on a modelling study that only considers a weak between-host transmission rate. We develop an approximate model for stochastic avian flu epidemics, which allows us to determine the relative contribution of environmental and direct transmission routes to the periodicity and intensity of outbreaks over the full range of plausible parameter values for transmission. Our approximate model reveals that epidemic recurrence is chiefly governed by the product of a rotation and a slowly varying standard Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process (i.e. mean-reverting process). The intrinsic frequency of the damped deterministic version of the system predicts the dominant period of outbreaks. We show that the typical periodicity of major avian flu outbreaks can be explained in terms of either or both types of transmission and that the typical amplitude of epidemics is highly sensitive to the direct transmission rate.
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