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The Emergence of Two Distinct Fertility Regimes in Economically Advanced Countries
Ronald R Rindfuss1, Minja Kim Choe2, Sarah R Brauner-Otto3
1Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, CB# 8120, University Square, 123 West Franklin Street, Chapel Hill, NC 27516-2524, USA.
Population Research and Policy Review
|March 30, 2018
Summary
Economically advanced nations show a fertility split: moderate (1.9) or low (1.3) period total fertility rates (TFR). This bifurcation is linked to institutional policies enabling women to balance careers and motherhood.
Area of Science:
- Demography
- Sociology
- Economics
Background:
- Since 2000, economically advanced countries exhibit a distinct bifurcation in period total fertility rates (TFR).
- Fertility levels have diverged into two main groups: moderate TFR around 1.9 and low TFR around 1.3.
- Geographically, higher TFR countries include Northern/Western Europe, Oceania, and the US, while lower TFR countries are in Central/Southern/Eastern Europe and East/Southeast Asia.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the reasons behind the observed bifurcation in fertility levels among developed nations.
- To evaluate existing theories of low fertility in light of the new bifurcation pattern.
- To identify the role of institutional arrangements and policies in moderating fertility rates.
Main Methods:
- Review of major theories on low fertility.
- Comparative analysis of institutional arrangements and policies in countries with differing TFRs.
- Case study approach, including Canada as an exception.
Main Results:
- Existing low fertility theories do not account for the observed bifurcation.
- Countries with moderate TFRs (around 1.9) possess institutional structures that facilitate combining work and motherhood.
- Institutional details vary significantly, indicating multiple policy pathways to similar fertility outcomes.
Conclusions:
- The bifurcation in TFR is driven by specific institutional arrangements and policies, not by universal theories.
- Policies enabling women to integrate work and family roles are crucial for maintaining fertility near replacement levels.
- Divergent institutional structures, as seen in Canada, highlight the nuanced relationship between policy and fertility outcomes.
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