Immigrant Fertility in Canada 2001-2021: A Brief Report

Canada has low fertility and relies on immigration to support the labor force and population growth. However, if recent waves of immigrants have the same or lower rates of fertility than native-born Canadians, then immigration becomes a demographic revolving door rather than long-term solution for the country's population pressures. This paper provides estimates for immigrant fertility in Canada 2001-2021, examining heterogeneity by age at migration, immigration streams, and country of origin. We use the long-form Canadian census (2001, 2006, 2016, 2021) and the National Household Survey (2011). Using the "Own Infant Method", we estimate total fertility rates for different population subgroups for the period prior to each census. Immigrants to Canada have higher fertility than native-born Canadians, but the gap is narrowing, from 0.24 births in 2001 to 0.11 in 2021. Within immigrant categories, there is great variation. First-generation immigrants have the highest TFR, while 1.5-generation immigrants have even lower fertility than both first-generation immigrants and those who are native-born. Among immigration streams, family stream immigrants have the highest fertility, followed by refugees, and then economic immigrants. Fertility rates of immigrants from almost all of the top ten source countries declined substantially between 2001 and 2021, with most being below replacement level in Canada and much lower than the fertility in the source country. These findings are essential for policymakers as they debate the right levels of immigration, and which immigration streams and source countries best promote long-term population growth.