Immigrant Fertility in Canada 2001-2021: A Brief Report

Area of Science:

• Demography
• Sociology
• Public Policy

Background:

• Canada faces low fertility rates and relies on immigration for labor force and population expansion.
• The long-term demographic impact of immigration depends on immigrant fertility rates relative to native-born populations.

Purpose of the Study:

• To estimate immigrant fertility rates in Canada from 2001 to 2021.
• To analyze variations in immigrant fertility based on age at migration, immigration stream, and country of origin.
• To inform immigration policy debates regarding population growth.

Main Methods:

• Utilized Canadian census data (2001, 2006, 2016, 2021) and the National Household Survey (2011).
• Employed the "Own Infant Method" to estimate total fertility rates (TFR) for various subgroups.
• Calculated TFRs for the period preceding each census.

Main Results:

• Immigrant fertility in Canada exceeds that of native-born Canadians, but the gap has decreased from 0.24 in 2001 to 0.11 in 2021.
• First-generation immigrants exhibit the highest TFR, while 1.5-generation immigrants show lower fertility than both first-generation immigrants and native-born individuals.
• Fertility rates vary by immigration stream (family > refugees > economic) and have significantly declined across top source countries, often falling below replacement levels.

Conclusions:

• The narrowing fertility gap between immigrants and native-born Canadians raises questions about immigration's long-term demographic sustainability.
• Significant heterogeneity exists within immigrant groups, necessitating nuanced policy considerations.
• Declining fertility among immigrants from major source countries underscores the need for evidence-based immigration policy to support population growth objectives.