Changes in Family Structure and Increasing Care Gaps in the United States, 2015-2050

Area of Science:

• Gerontology and Demography
• Sociology of Health and Aging
• Public Health Policy

Background:

• Existing research lacks clarity on the extent of unmet care needs among older adults in the U.S.
• Anticipated shifts in family structures may exacerbate existing care deficits.
• Understanding the gap between care needed and care received is crucial for elder care planning.

Purpose of the Study:

• To quantify current care gaps for older adults in the United States.
• To analyze how care gaps vary based on family structure.
• To project the future evolution of care gaps through 2050, considering demographic changes.

Main Methods:

• Utilized data from the Health and Retirement Study (1998-2014) to estimate care gaps.
• Defined care gaps as difficulties with activities of daily living (ADLs) or instrumental activities of daily living (IADLs) without receiving care.
• Employed demographic microsimulation to forecast future trends in care gaps.

Main Results:

• Care gaps are prevalent, with 13% of adults aged 50+ experiencing gaps in ADL care and 5% in IADL care.
• Individuals without partners or children exhibit the highest rates of care gaps.
• The number of older adults with care gaps is projected to increase by over 30% between 2015 and 2050.

Conclusions:

• Significant care gaps exist among older U.S. adults, particularly for those lacking family support.
• Demographic trends and changing family structures will likely widen these care gaps substantially by 2050.
• Findings provide a critical baseline for addressing the growing challenge of unmet elder care needs.