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Published on: June 16, 2014
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Climate extremes, land-climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C
Sonia I Seneviratne1, Richard Wartenburger2, Benoit P Guillod2,3
1Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland sonia.seneviratne@ethz.ch.
Summary
Global warming of 1.5°C will significantly alter temperature and water cycle extremes. Land processes and land-use changes critically influence these regional climate extremes, impacting mitigation pathways.
Area of Science:
- Climate Science
- Environmental Science
- Earth System Science
Background:
- Global warming presents risks of increased temperature and water cycle extremes.
- Understanding regional impacts at 1.5°C warming is crucial for climate policy.
- Land processes and land-use changes (LUCs) are recognized as important factors in climate projections.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate projected changes in temperature and water cycle extremes at 1.5°C global warming.
- To highlight the role of land processes and LUCs in these projections.
- To compare climate changes at 1.5°C versus 2°C warming using different simulation approaches.
Main Methods:
- Empirical sampling analyses of transient simulations.
- Simulations from the 'Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts' (HAPPI) multi-model experiment.
- Comparison of climate extremes on land at 1.5°C and 2°C warming.
Main Results:
- Both simulation approaches yielded similar overall results for land climate extremes.
- A substantial difference in regional extremes was observed between 1.5°C and 2°C warming.
- Land processes (soil moisture feedbacks) and LUCs significantly influence projected extremes in mid-latitudes.
Conclusions:
- Land processes and LUCs are critical for projected regional climate extremes at 1.5°C warming.
- Biogeophysical effects of LUCs are important for climate extremes but often omitted in integrated assessment models (IAMs).
- Consideration of LUCs' biogeophysical effects is vital for sustainable development pathways and climate mitigation strategies.
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